Tuesday 26 March 2019

Electric cars and the demise of the fossil fuelled cars

Ever since Tesla's model S was introduced the evolution of the electric car industry has been the talk of the automotive industry. Prior to that electric cars were thought of as a glorified electric golf cart. When Tesla unveiled the Model S many industry observers and several American car makers were laughing at Tesla and said that Tesla won't survive more than 5 years, that was in 2011. Fast forward 8 years and Tesla is leading the way with its electric car technology and no other car maker until today have caught up with it. Those American car giants had to swallow their words and admit that electric cars are the way forward. These car makers are also scrambling to design competitive electric cars to take on Tesla if they don't want to be left behind.

With more countries announcing the ban of gasoline and diesel engine cars, this push towards electric cars just got a lot stronger. Companies like Ford and GM cannot laugh at electric cars and it appears that they have lot of strong competition in this field. China car makers have embraced electric cars because in the eyes of the Chinese automakers it allows them to springboard forward and catch the other long established automakers in this field. China electronic industry and battery industry is one of the most advanced and for them to put together an electric car is not difficult.

China's attempted at making a world class electric car has started with few new comers such as Lynk & Co, Nio and Byton. The designs are not ugly nor are they mundane low rent looking cars. They have current design flair to it and have the technology to compete with the likes of Nissan (leaf) and Chevrolet. 

Some industry observers thought that Tesla was starting to rest on its laurels but every year they introduce something ground breaking like the first electric semi truck capable of 500 miles on a full charge and possibly one of the fastest electric sports cars with the Tesla Roadster 2 which claims a 0-100km/h time of under 2 seconds! Tesla keeps moving the yardstick further and further ahead making it difficult for many car makers to catch. Name such as Mercedes, Audi and Porsche have invested billions to develop their own range of electric cars which aim to compete head to head with Tesla. BMW also just announced their upcoming range of electric models starting in 2021. 

It is exciting times ahead and there will be a lot to look forward to in the electric car industry. The question remains if the older fossil fuel cars will still be relevant in the next 20 years in developed countries. The adoption of the electric car will be faster in developed countries but in poorer third world countries where electricity supply isn't as stable and charging infrastructure is poor it will be difficult to see electric cars over taking gasoline or diesel cars. Among the developed countries Japan seems to be slow to move toward electric cars. The car makers like Toyota, Honda, Subaru and Mazda don't seem to be bothered with full electric cars. Toyota is still sticking to its hybrid technology and Mazda is still championing their combustion engines.

Countries like Indonesia and Philippines will see slow adoption of electric cars, similarly with India and African countries. The reason for the slow adoption is the geographic nature of the country. Indonesia and Philippines are made up of hundreds of small islands while India together with many other developing countries like Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia and many South American countries don't have stable electric power systems. This makes moving to electric cars very difficult.

Shifting to electric cars will be a painful challenge for some countries where charging infrastructure will be the biggest problem. Some countries struggle to generate enough electricity for regular use let alone charging a car which can take an additional burden. In countries like India, during summer the electricity usage spikes which causes often power outages. Charging an electric car in such situations will not be a huge problem. Then there is also the problem with charging in highly populated cities where even charging in one's home is also difficult since most of the population live in apartment buildings and having a charging point is not always an option.

Managing the development of the charging infrastructure will be vital for a successful conversion to electric cars.