Tuesday, 9 April 2019

Driving behaviour in different countries

Driving behaviours vary from country to country. It also have a lot to do with the mentality and attitude of the drivers. In developed countries like Japan, UK and Germany the drivers obey the laws and will often follow a certain etiquette when it comes to driving. This behaviour varies tremendously and can sometimes be very shocking.

Lets break it down by several countries that I have observed:

- China (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Beijing) : Car ownership is still relatively new and having a driving license is also new for many people in China. In the earlier years (around year 2000) the driving behaviour was atrocious as the drivers had zero respect for traffic laws, often drove against the flow of traffic to save time or to take a short cut. The accident rates were extremely high and resulted in high number of road fatalities. Ever since the Chinese Government's move to install millions of CCTV on highways and on city streets and impose heavy punishment on bad driving or breaking traffic laws the accident rates dropped significantly and the drivers now behave themselves and observe traffic laws.

- India (new Delhi & Bangalore): due to bad town planning and narrow streets the traffic is always bad in all major Indian cities. A two lane wide road will end up having 5 cars squeezing across the 2 lanes. The drivers still try to find short cuts even if it means driving against the flow of traffic. The driving speeds are generally very slow due to heavy congestion but the behaviours of the drivers don't help he situation. Seeing an already congested intersection the drivers will still drive their cars into the congested intersection to make it worse instead of waiting for the next traffic light change. The road conditions and the presence of cows on the road makes situation worse. Badly maintained heavy vehicles and trucks that regularly break down further amplifies the already terrible situation.

- Manila, Jakarta & Bangkok: In cities like Manila where town planning is bad due to prior corruption of politicians the traffic situation will never improve and it is like a perpetual traffic jam every day. The presence of Jeepneys (modified mini bus) that stop randomly makes traffic problem an endless ordeal. There is little to no chance of driving fast and the impatience of the drivers don't help the situation. The traffic police can do little to help the situation since the town planning is the biggest cause of traffic problems.

- Turkey (Istanbul) : by far the most dangerous place to drive. Almost every person driving a car is holding on to their phone texting another person or talk on the phone while the other hand is trying to steer the car or change gears (manual transmission). The drivers are very aggressive and drive extremely fast in narrow streets without fear of hitting pedestrians and have zero navigation planning. They would start driving and then try to find their destination on their phones instead of finding the destination on their phone's GPS before start driving. The cars would meander from lane to lane as the driver is too distracted with their phone to drive safely. Many cars have some sort of accident damage. It is evidence of how bad the driving conditions are in Turkey. The drivers are aggressive and are always in the hurry. Driving against the flow of traffic is common in Istanbul. the drivers have little to no regard for traffic laws.

- Dubai - It is like an Arab driving syndrome. They are always in a hurry, drive very aggressively and are always talking on the phone. The drivers are always distracted and never focus on driving. The accidents are usually big. Despite having big wide road with near perfect road surfaces the drivers are still crazy and all think they are Formula One drivers. Breaking the speed limit is the norm and way of life!

- Singapore : The punishment for bad driving is severe in Singapore but that doesn't stop the drivers behaving like buffoons when they cross over to Malaysia. Whenever they spot a foreign registered car driving in Singapore the Singaporean driver will want to cut off the foreign car. It is like a game for them. The Singaporean drives will get fined heavily when caught speeding or running red lights but they happily do it in Malaysia thinking that they won't have to pay for traffic offences in Malaysia. It is like a caged animal being let loose again!

Tuesday, 26 March 2019

Electric cars and the demise of the fossil fuelled cars

Ever since Tesla's model S was introduced the evolution of the electric car industry has been the talk of the automotive industry. Prior to that electric cars were thought of as a glorified electric golf cart. When Tesla unveiled the Model S many industry observers and several American car makers were laughing at Tesla and said that Tesla won't survive more than 5 years, that was in 2011. Fast forward 8 years and Tesla is leading the way with its electric car technology and no other car maker until today have caught up with it. Those American car giants had to swallow their words and admit that electric cars are the way forward. These car makers are also scrambling to design competitive electric cars to take on Tesla if they don't want to be left behind.

With more countries announcing the ban of gasoline and diesel engine cars, this push towards electric cars just got a lot stronger. Companies like Ford and GM cannot laugh at electric cars and it appears that they have lot of strong competition in this field. China car makers have embraced electric cars because in the eyes of the Chinese automakers it allows them to springboard forward and catch the other long established automakers in this field. China electronic industry and battery industry is one of the most advanced and for them to put together an electric car is not difficult.

China's attempted at making a world class electric car has started with few new comers such as Lynk & Co, Nio and Byton. The designs are not ugly nor are they mundane low rent looking cars. They have current design flair to it and have the technology to compete with the likes of Nissan (leaf) and Chevrolet. 

Some industry observers thought that Tesla was starting to rest on its laurels but every year they introduce something ground breaking like the first electric semi truck capable of 500 miles on a full charge and possibly one of the fastest electric sports cars with the Tesla Roadster 2 which claims a 0-100km/h time of under 2 seconds! Tesla keeps moving the yardstick further and further ahead making it difficult for many car makers to catch. Name such as Mercedes, Audi and Porsche have invested billions to develop their own range of electric cars which aim to compete head to head with Tesla. BMW also just announced their upcoming range of electric models starting in 2021. 

It is exciting times ahead and there will be a lot to look forward to in the electric car industry. The question remains if the older fossil fuel cars will still be relevant in the next 20 years in developed countries. The adoption of the electric car will be faster in developed countries but in poorer third world countries where electricity supply isn't as stable and charging infrastructure is poor it will be difficult to see electric cars over taking gasoline or diesel cars. Among the developed countries Japan seems to be slow to move toward electric cars. The car makers like Toyota, Honda, Subaru and Mazda don't seem to be bothered with full electric cars. Toyota is still sticking to its hybrid technology and Mazda is still championing their combustion engines.

Countries like Indonesia and Philippines will see slow adoption of electric cars, similarly with India and African countries. The reason for the slow adoption is the geographic nature of the country. Indonesia and Philippines are made up of hundreds of small islands while India together with many other developing countries like Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia and many South American countries don't have stable electric power systems. This makes moving to electric cars very difficult.

Shifting to electric cars will be a painful challenge for some countries where charging infrastructure will be the biggest problem. Some countries struggle to generate enough electricity for regular use let alone charging a car which can take an additional burden. In countries like India, during summer the electricity usage spikes which causes often power outages. Charging an electric car in such situations will not be a huge problem. Then there is also the problem with charging in highly populated cities where even charging in one's home is also difficult since most of the population live in apartment buildings and having a charging point is not always an option.

Managing the development of the charging infrastructure will be vital for a successful conversion to electric cars.

Thursday, 21 February 2019

Evolution of the BMW M3

BMW's M3 model is by far one of the most popular among the M cars produced by BMW. It is sporty, fast and is one of the best handling cars in its category. It has evolved from the sporty, sharp handling little sedan in the form of the E30 with just over 200hp but today the upcoming variant in the G80 boasts 480hp! The power output has more than doubled in the last 30 years!

The competition in the category is fierce with the Audi RS4 and Mercedes C63 offering equally capable models. The interesting thing to note that the upcoming G80 M3 will have as much power as the Porsche 997 Turbo!

One would never imagine that the power hikes can really be this much over 3 decades. The very popular E36 M3 Evo pushed out 321hp from a 3.2 litre engine which was one of the best engines of its time. Then came the E46 M3 pushing similar power before the E90 4 litre V8 made a big jump to 400hp. After that the F30 M3 came with 3.0 litre twin turbo pushing out 420hp.

The competitor from Audi had over 440hp and Mercedes's C63 had 500hp! BMW was under pressure to produce a monster capable of beating these two cars. On paper the horsepower was on but on the track the M3's handling was the best of the lot allowing to easily keep up or be faster than the other 2 cars on the track.

As the evolution of the model goes one will wonder how much further the engine power will increase. It is the same for the M5 which started off with the E39 model pushing out 300+hp while the latest variant pushes out over 600hp!

All these sports models from BMW have made sports cars look slow and forced the sports car makers to seek for more power. The terms sports cars is no longer exclusive to 2 door low slung sporty looking cars. The sports sedans are now deemed as a better choice since it can carry 5 people, have decent luggage space and is more comfortable to drive but yet have the performance when you need it. The term sports car is now just a blur!


Thursday, 31 January 2019

Cross over models are they really practical?

Cross over models seem to be the popular among car makers these days with Mercedes, BMW and several others introducing their new cross over models. The trend started with BMW with the first generation X6. The car was an odd ball design that didn't quite seem practical in my opinion. Unlike a traditional SUV where the real trunk has a boxy design which is convenient to load luggage or cargo but the design of the SUV is not very sporty looking. Enter the X6 which had a swooping rear roof line and made the car look more sporty and coupe like but at the expense of rear trunk space.

The rear trunk space of the X6 was easily 30% smaller than the X5 and couple that with the swooping roof line it meant that loading tall items a real challenge. Mercedes then thought that they wanted to join the party and introduced their GLC couple and GLE coupe models. Both are similar in look but only difference is the size of the car. Both had swooping roof lines which meant that the rear trunk space would be compromised to some degree.

The question now comes: are the cross overs really practical? I find that the Mercedes GLC and GLE coupes are very odd looking and same goes for the X6. These cars are neither sporty to look like a sports car and it is not practical enough to be as good as a SUV. It is kind of caught in the middle. It is not the best of both worlds, in fact it is a failure to be either one. Some people like it and prefer these cross overs to SUVs because the SUVs are boxy looking and the cross overs have a sleeker shape. The cross overs do offer higher ground clearance compared to normal cars but most of them don't have really good off road ability nor will they be taken off road.

It is unlikely that these car makers will stop making cross overs as one of the best selling models are the SUVs or cars with higher ground clearance. This trend is so strong that Ford have stopped making traditional sedans and focused only on SUVs, trucks and the Mustang. I wonder if any other car maker will follow Ford's footsteps but at the moment it seems unlikely. Toyota, VW, Honda, Nissan and Renault have enough sales volume from normal sedans to justify the continuation of selling sedan models.

the ever increasing size of BMW's front grille

With each new model of BMW 7 series the front grille gets a little bigger. It is quite ridiculous that this keeps increasing in size. I wonder how much larger will it get in the next 20 years! If one looks back over the last 4 models it is very clear to see the gradual size increase. The car is no doubt evolving forward with the design and features but it is undeniably strange to see the grille grow over each generation.

Some people made memes of the car's front grille that it will grow to ridiculous proportions! I am wondering if BMW realise this or whether this is intentional.

On another note, the BMW interior is looking aged in comparison to Mercedes, Audi and Porsche. The recent updated interior of Mercedes have made it look a lot younger and would definitely appeal to the younger buyers. Audi has always been leading the way with innovative interior designs with the virtual cockpit and the interesting centre console design. BMW seems to be stuck in a time warp  and the interior design barely changed since the E60 model. The evolution is ever so slight and despite the new features such as touch screen iDrive and the gesture motion control, the car's interior still looks very early 2000. It does not feel 2019!

A classy or futuristic interior will attract buyers. Porsche had to up their game with their interiors as well and do away with the airplane cockpit style button layout in the centre console and introduce the touch sensitivity buttons that are black in colour. The wider high definition touch screen also make the car look current. I like how the new 992 model utilise a special analog tachometer in the middle of the instrument cluster to bring back the retro feel but yet the other cowls are digital to keep it in the modern era.

The most impressive of all are the new China designed cars. Their cockpit design can give many Japanese and Korean car makers a run for their money. The BYD models and NIO models have cool looking virtual cockpits that display a tonne of information and is customisable to suit the driver's preference. watch out for the upcoming EV models from china. it may surprise some people.

Wednesday, 26 December 2018

Why do French car makers struggle so badly in South East Asia?

French car makers like Peugeot, Citroen and Renault have been around for more than 60 years and collective have decent market share in European countries and South America but they struggle badly in South East Asia. Peugeot is the only car maker that performs better than the other 2 brands in Malaysia but is practically non-existent in Indonesia, Philippines and thailand. Renault struggles badly in Malaysia despite heavily promoting the Captur and Koleos models. The cars are priced competitively against German rivals VW and Japanese rivals Honda and Toyota. Combined the monthly sales volume seldom exceeds 100 cars which is not enough for a mass market brand to survive.

The struggle of the these French brands are mainly due to the lack of after sales support and poor reliability in the past. The earlier distributors did not offer good after sales service and parts support leaving many owners in a lurch when the cars had problem. It also compounded the problem when the cars were not reliable and was not topicalised to suit the humid climate. Having a bad reputation for poor reliability and bad after sales service the brand image took a big punishment making it very difficult to sell present models.

Used car dealers are reluctant to accept cars from these brands as it is slow to sell and very few customers would look to buy a French car.  All these factors make it an uphill battle to promote the brand. Renault may be actively in F1 but it does nothing for the brand in Asia. Renault tried to promote the sporty models like the Megane R.S. hot hatch but it was too niche and only enthusiasts would buy it. For the average buyer who had such a budget for a hot hatch they would either buy a VW Golf GTI or a used Mercedes A45 AMG. These two cars had much better residual values and could easily be sold in the second hand market.

Citroen recently tried to make a come back with the DS models. The cars look good but again the brand image has been damaged. The brand only appealed to the enthusiasts or the buyers who previously owned a Citroen. It was difficult to convert buyers from Honda, Toyota or Mazda to switch. Even if the buyers from the main stream Japanese brands would buy a European model it would most likely be a BMW, Mercedes or Audi.

The problem is the brand image of the French cars are stuck in limbo. It is neither low end or luxury. It is stuck in the middle to compete with the Japanese and Koreans which are often the preferred choice due to reliability and after sales support and also residual values. I believe it will take many more years before the French brands can make any head way in South East Asia unless they are willing to invest heavily in setting up production bases and reduce the prices significantly to capture market share. Renault did this in India and succeeded so this same formula is needed if it were to succeed in South East Asia.


Monday, 3 December 2018

China's new EVs will be a force to be reckoned with in the near future

I just returned from a business trip to china and all I saw was many hybrid and EVs on the roads and on display in shopping malls and in impressive car showrooms facing the main streets. What does this mean? China's foray into the EV market is growing by leaps and bounds unlike the information that is published in the western media. According to some local Chinese industry observers it is rumoured that 1 in every 3 cars sold in Shanghai alone is either a EV or a hybrid. Fuel prices in China is higher than in South East Asia but it is not as high as in Europe or Japan. The Chinese Government have been giving incentives to local car makers such as BYD, SAIC, Geely and many others to develop more EVs to help reduce air pollution. China's megacities are by far among the worst in the world in terms of quality and reducing the amount of smog by using EVs seems to be working.

The development of the EVs in China have been impressive. The Chinese car makers acknowledge that it will be a huge task for them to catch up to the Europeans or Japanese in terms of combustion engine technology so they shifted their focus to EVs which is easier to develop and also the most critical point is that all the materials needed to make the EV is readily available in China. China is the largest battery producer in the world and is the electronics manufacturing hub of the world. Accessibility for the required components is easy. Having said that many ex-Tesla engineers were also pinched by China car companies to help with the development of their EVs. This basically allows them to leapfrog the other car makers and be able to play at the front of the EV market.

Tesla is too expensive for many of the average Chinese buyers but a locally developed and produced EV with similar size and perhaps 60% of the performance capability of the Tesla at half the price would appeal to a big number of Chinese buyers. The incredible thing about the EV development in China is not just about creating the car but the infrastructure they have planned for it. For the new car company NIO that only produces EVs (and currently makes the fastest EV to lap the Nurburgring) they already have a battery swapping network in place across China. They claim that they can swap out a battery in under 5 minutes and replace it with a fully charged unit. This is as quick as refuelling at a gas station for a regular combustion engine car. This is solving a few issues that have been concerns of potential EV buyers. The range issue is solved and the battery life problem is also solved.

The design of the cars now look modern and come fully loaded with functions such as voice command, lane departure warning, traction control, blind spot warning system, interactive infotainment system and many more.





The car shown above is the Roewe Marvel-X which is owned by SAIC. this mid sized SUV comes in 2 variants, a basic 2WD and fully loaded 4WD version. On paper it claims to offer a 500km driving range when cruising at 60kph but in reality I would expect a realistic driving range of 380-400km since when you run the air conditioning and audio system and lights it will reduce the driving range. The car is capable of 0-100kph in 4.8 seconds. It is impressive to say the least and the expected selling price in China before subsidies is RMB200,000.
It claims to be able to achieve 80% charge in 40 minutes from a fast charger. This is good since many other Japanese EVs take much longer to charge.





Next comes the NIO ES8 SUV. This SUV is much larger and capable of seating 7 people. It has a driving range of 350km but the battery swap takes just 5 minutes. This car comes fully loaded is expected to cost US$60,000. The interior design is very cool and the build quality is top notch with nice materials used.

From what can be seen in China it can be said that the yardstick for the EV market just moved much further than I expected and I would also say that the Japanese car makers need to wake up and play the catch up game. The current offerings from Japan fall way short of what China has to offer. If the big guns in Japan remain asleep they will soon find themselves out of the game altogether. While the Japanese car makers still use the out of date Nickel metal hydride batteries for the EV, China is already using Lithium ion and soon lithium polymer batteries. I personally feel that the Japanese car makers have fallen far behind the EV industry. They will need something amazing to close the gap.

China and the European car makers are really pushing the development of EVs to a new level. It won't be long before China's EVs hit the world market. So far the EVs are only being sold in China but once the cars gain sufficient popularity in China the car makers will start to venture to other countries.